Æå�ã ÈÇÈå�Êå�ی ÎæÑÇå�æå äææÓÑÇæ áå áÇیå�ä ÑۆŽäÇãå�æÇäێß Èå äÇæی Jean-Christophe Peuch¡ áå ŽێÑ äÇæی "ßÇÊی ÈڕیÇÑÏÇÑ Èۆ ßæÑÏå�ßÇä¡ Èå�ڵÇã �یÑæ�ÑÝÊßÇäی äæێ áå ÆÇÓۆÏÇ" (Crunch Time For Kurds, But New Problems On The Horizon)¡ ÈÇÓ áå �å�æÑå�ÊÑیä æ ÌÏÏیÊÑیä ãå�ÊÑÓیå�ßÇä ßå �ÇÔ ÑææÎÇäی Óå�ÏÏÇã ÑææÈå�ڕæی ßæÑÏå�ßÇäی ÈÇÔææÑ Ïå�ÈێÊå�æ��å¡ Ïå�ßÇÊ.
ÊێÈیäی: ãä åå�äÏێß áå Óå�Ñå�ÊÇی Æå�ã ÈÇÈå�Êå� ßå ÈÇÓی ãێŽææی ßæÑÏå�ßÇä æ ÆێÑÇÞ Èå �ÔÊی Ïå�ßÇÊ áÇ ÈÑÏæå.
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The disappearance of the Ba'ath regime -- the greatest threat to the Kurds -- may further weaken already loose intertribal ties and reignite the traditional rivalry between Barzani and Talabani as each of the two leaders tries to pose as the most influential regional leader.
McDowall believes this rivalry may play into the hands of any government in Baghdad, which could be tempted to exploit it to reassert its control over Kurdistan.
"Since the KDP and the PUK are basically rivals, the prospect, I think, is that their rivalry will become -- now that the danger to them from Saddam has ceased to be -- a major feature of Iraqi Kurdistan and, maybe, a major feature over the way a Kurdish federal state relates to Baghdad," McDowall said. "Just imagine, if you are in Baghdad and you are not very strong, you would do everything you can to play off Barzani against Talabani, knowing that they loathe each other."
Since the emergence of the PUK as a splinter group of the KDP in the mid-1970s, both parties have fought intermittent wars that claimed thousands of lives. In their struggle for influence, Barzani and Talabani have relied on political or military support offered alternately by Baghdad, Tehran, Ankara, and Damascus.
In the late-1990s, a U.S.-brokered agreement led to local elections that ended in a dead heat for both parties, which each garnered some 45 percent of the seats in a regional parliament. Experts believe new elections including Kirkuk -- in case the city is included in a federal Kurdistan -- would not affect the political balance of forces and might therefore lead to military confrontation between the two groups.
As van Bruinessen puts it, "The military aspect of the [U.S.-led] war was relatively simple, but the aftermath is where the biggest risks are."
He adds: "There are so many conflicting interests in Iraq -- especially in the Kirkuk, Mosul, and Khanaqin areas -- that I find it hard to imagine a stable situation any time soon
ÊێÈیäی: ãä åå�äÏێß áå Óå�Ñå�ÊÇی Æå�ã ÈÇÈå�Êå� ßå ÈÇÓی ãێŽææی ßæÑÏå�ßÇä æ ÆێÑÇÞ Èå �ÔÊی Ïå�ßÇÊ áÇ ÈÑÏæå.
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The disappearance of the Ba'ath regime -- the greatest threat to the Kurds -- may further weaken already loose intertribal ties and reignite the traditional rivalry between Barzani and Talabani as each of the two leaders tries to pose as the most influential regional leader.
McDowall believes this rivalry may play into the hands of any government in Baghdad, which could be tempted to exploit it to reassert its control over Kurdistan.
"Since the KDP and the PUK are basically rivals, the prospect, I think, is that their rivalry will become -- now that the danger to them from Saddam has ceased to be -- a major feature of Iraqi Kurdistan and, maybe, a major feature over the way a Kurdish federal state relates to Baghdad," McDowall said. "Just imagine, if you are in Baghdad and you are not very strong, you would do everything you can to play off Barzani against Talabani, knowing that they loathe each other."
Since the emergence of the PUK as a splinter group of the KDP in the mid-1970s, both parties have fought intermittent wars that claimed thousands of lives. In their struggle for influence, Barzani and Talabani have relied on political or military support offered alternately by Baghdad, Tehran, Ankara, and Damascus.
In the late-1990s, a U.S.-brokered agreement led to local elections that ended in a dead heat for both parties, which each garnered some 45 percent of the seats in a regional parliament. Experts believe new elections including Kirkuk -- in case the city is included in a federal Kurdistan -- would not affect the political balance of forces and might therefore lead to military confrontation between the two groups.
As van Bruinessen puts it, "The military aspect of the [U.S.-led] war was relatively simple, but the aftermath is where the biggest risks are."
He adds: "There are so many conflicting interests in Iraq -- especially in the Kirkuk, Mosul, and Khanaqin areas -- that I find it hard to imagine a stable situation any time soon
posted by Kawan at
2:03 AM
